9 Minute Read

Market Recap: August 9 2015

August 9, 2015

By | 3 Comments

ECONOMIC EVENTS & NEWS
The Dow Jones Industrial is now down for the year & finishes the week at the bottom of its channel with seven straight down days in a row. Earnings season is over the peak & comes to a close.

Friday’s job numbers from the July report came in good enough to scare the market into a possible rate hike by fthe Fed soon. Remember good news on economics equals bad news for market right now. Strange times indeed. However, commodity prices being down and still bearish are keeping the inflation outlook low, so really why raise rates? We’ll see. The probability calculator from CME can be found here:

Fedwatch link

Option volatility rose a bit last week but is still considered low. I’m looking for a good 2% down day on the markets to  introduce a true bear market and then sending the VIX to at least 19.

Oil hit below $44 like we said it would hit 48 then 43, and we’re pretty darn close. Keep eye on USD; if it breaks the double top recently put in, there goes oils and most commodities to the downside. I wouldn’t mind picking up some SLV if it drops even more.

This week to watch:  Not much

Monday – Dennis Lockhart Speaks

Tuesday – Productivity numberss

Wednesday – Dudley speaks

Thursday – Retail numberss

Friday – PPI , Michigan Sentiment report

Major earnings to move markets

Wed. – M (Macys), Cisco (Cisco)

Thur. – KSS (Kohls) , JWN (Nordstroms)

MARKETS
(click on symbol for chart)
SPX –  Bear – Slightly, Look for close below 200 MA then 2063
DOW–  Bear
Nasd –  Neutral
Russ –  Bear

VIX –  13.39
Archa Hi  vs Low =  -128 Bear

 

SECTORS – trend on daily chart (click symbol for chart)

Materials (XLB) – Bear
Energy (XLE) –    Bear
Financials (XLF) –  Bull/Neutral
Industrials (XLI) – Bear
Technology (XLK) – Bear
Staples (XLP) –   Bull
Utilities (XLU) –  Bull
Healthcare (XLV) –  Bull , slightly
Discretionary (XLY) –  Bull, going to be affected by retail numbers this week
Mining (XME) –    Bear
Real Estate (IYR) –  Neut
Retail (RTH) –    Neut ( affected by retail numbers this week)
Oil (USO) – Bear
Ag (DBA) – Bear
GLD –   Bear
SLV –    Bear

WORLD WATCH
VEU – world markets – USA companies – BEAR
EEM – global emerging markets- BEAR big time

THE DOLLAR
UUP – USD weighted etf – Bullish to Neutral , triple top formed,  watch for breakout

COACHES TRADING THOUGHTS-

I like the bears team going into this week; especially in the Industrial sector.  If I favor the bulls, the staples have pulled back a bit after a nice bullish run. Utilities going bullish recently could be a flight to safety.

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3 Replies to “Market Recap: August 9 2015”

  1. RaymondRoyer says:

    Thanks Gino.

  2. TOMSTOKES says:

    Thanks Gino

  3. timzapf says:

    Thanks Gino

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