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Friday Feature: The Magic Kingdom

May 8, 2020

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Disney in China Re-Opens

Shelter in Place orders in the US are slowly being eased, as government tries to balance economic health with the risk of the Coronavirus spreading.  In China, Disney has announced a re-opening of the theme park Shanghai Disney on May 11.  Tickets sold out nearly immediately for Dates between the 11th and 17th.  According to one online ticket vendor, Fliggy, their supply of Shanghai Disney tickets sold out in 3 minutes.

Now, to understand this better, the Chinese Government has asked Disney to cap attendance at the park to 30% of capacity.  So, there will be smaller crowds, shorter lines and more ‘social distance’ than the crowd you’d be used to seeing at a theme park. 

But the demand is impressive.  In the US, Disney will re-open some of their shopping at it’s Florida resort on May 20th.  Projections for re-opening of their theme parks range from weeks to several months out, even as restrictions ease. 

It’s an interesting company to watch, as it will give us a good idea of consumer behavior in the face of virus risk.  It doesn’t mean Disney is or is not a good buy or sell at these levels, as we just don’t know if 30% capacity in a park can bring back some profitability to the levels we have seen in the past.  Nor does it address the other segments of their business.

But we’ll be watching companies like this, who are dependent on consumers being willing to go into large crowds to maximize profitability, as the economy re-opens.  Are you going to be one the first in line for an event when they open the gates?  How long the economic damage lasts for some of these companies will depend on how fast consumers will get back to their old behavior. 

Major risks also include future closures if we get other outbreaks or governments re-impose restrictions because of public health risks. 

Have a great Friday and be sure to attend the Mind of a Trader closing bell class we hold at 2:30 P.M. EST on Fridays which can be accessed here

Team Tackle

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