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Market Recap January 5, 2016

January 5, 2017


SP 5002269.00-1.75(-0.08%)
10-yr Note+26/322.347
NYSEAdv 1292Dec 1638Vol 1.14 bln
NasdaqAdv 1289Dec 1779Vol 1.62 bln



  • High correlation today with US equities and crude oil.
  • Gold and silver see continued relief.
  • Retailers under pressure after cautious guidance from Kohl’s (KSS) and Macy’s (M).
  • Crude oil sold off sharply following the EIA report.
  • U.S. Dollar Index plummets for a second day in a row for a significant loss.


RECAP– The market took its queue from oil today as the two markets were highly correlated. Both charts at an intraday time frame were identical. Crude oil sold off sharply following the EIA inventory report despite a larger than expected decrease in supply. It then spent the rest of the day trying to recover its losses. The US dollar continued to drop significantly today which allowed gold and silver to finish higher.

In-depth look of daily news at Briefing.com (CLICK HERE)

In-depth look at after hours movers (CLICK HERE)

Economic Calendar


  • January 5: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change –  Actual: 153K  Forecast: 171K  Previous: 215K
    • This was a weak payrolls report. The important jobs report is the BLS report that come out tomorrow, but the ADP payrolls report is usually a good precursor.
  • January 5: Unemployment Claims –  Actual: 235K  Forecast: 262K  Previous: 263K
    • Unemployment claims came in significantly lower than expected which help offsets a disappointing payrolls report.
  • January 5: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI –  Actual: 57.2  Forecast: 56.6  Previous: 57.2
    • Non-manufacturing PMI exceeded expactations. A number above 50 indicates industry growth.
  • January 5: Crude Oil Inventories –  Actual: -7.1M  Forecast: -1.8M  Previous: 0.6M
    • Despite inventories coming in significantly lower than expectations, crude oil sold off sharply and tried to recover for the rest of the day.


Upcoming Reports

  • January 6: Average Hourly Earnings m/m
  • January 6: Non-Farm Employment Change
  • January 6: Unemployment Rate


FedWatch February 1 Rate Hike Probability for January 5: 2.0%  (View the probability chart here)

A Look At The S&P 500 Chart – KEY Levels

  • RSI is above 50.
  • On Balance Volume is above its moving average.
  • Today’s selloff that came after 11:00 AM was due to the announcement of crude oil inventories. Just like crude oil, the market then spent the rest of the day rallying to finish slightly lower.


A Look Into the Heat Map

The market was mixed today and slightly bearish. The weakest sector was Financials which dragged the market lower.


(click on symbol for chart)
SPX –  Bullish
Nasdaq Bullish  
Russell  Bullish  

VIX – 11.67


Oil (USO) –  Bullish 
Ag (DBA) – Bearish
GLD –  Bearish – Gold has been in a “relief rally” following months of constant selling. It should continue to fade higher as the US dollar retracements. By no means am I bullish on Gold or Silver as they are still in a long term bearish trend and this is more of a temporary retracement. I would like to see a bottoming pattern before changing my bias.
SLV –  Bearish – Same as gold.


UUP USD weighted ETF –  Bullish – The US dollar saw significant selling for two days in a row which signals a retracement is being put in. The momentum is still strong, but support could be put in anywhere from 100-101.



The market was highly correlated with oil today and the charts were mirrors of each other. It was believed that the market wouldn’t move much in anticipation for tomorrow’s Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report. Tomorrow’s economic reports are highly anticipated as is President-Elect Trump’s reaction to them. We did however see minor trend in the US dollar, gold, and silver which are all retracing from their longer trends.

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2 Replies to “Market Recap January 5, 2016”

  1. Bill Trimborn Bill Trimborn says:

    Thanks, Solon!

  2. ThomasFlohr says:

    Thank You Solon !

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