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Market Recap – Thursday, September 13th 2018

September 13, 2018

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SP 5002903.92+15.26(0.53%)
10-yr Note-2/322.97
NYSEAdv 1671Dec 1273Vol 757 mln
NasdaqAdv 1519Dec 1445Vol 2.15 bln
  • China welcomes U.S. invite for another round of trade talks.
  • Core Consumer Price Index rises less-than-expected in August (+0.1% actual vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus); helps relieve inflation fears.
  • Top-weighted tech sector outperforms, but heavily-weighted financials lag.
  • Crude oil pulls back.
  • US Dollar continues to sink.


RECAP– The market shot higher from the opening bell on news of potential trade talks between the United States and China. Crude oil pulled back from resistance of $70. The US Dollar continued to sink lower as it hit support of 94 on the Dollar Index.

In-depth look of daily news at Briefing.com (CLICK HERE)

In-depth look at after hours movers (CLICK HERE)

Economic Calendar


  • September 13: CPI m/m – Actual: 0.2%  Forecast: 0.3%  Previous: 0.2%
    • The consumer price index tracks the cost of good and services to consumers and is used to track inflation. This month’s figure came in lower than expected, but keeps inflation right on track.
  • September 13: Core CPI m/m – Actual: 0.1%  Forecast: 0.2%  Previous: 0.2%
    • Core CPI tracks inflation while excluding food and energy which tend to be volatile.
  • September 13: Unemployment Rate – Actual: 204K  Forecast: 210K  Previous: 205K
    • New unemployment claims came in lower than expected and remain at historic lows which underpin a strengthening labor market.


Upcoming Reports

  • September 14: Core Retail Sales m/m
  • September 14: Retail Sales m/m


FedWatch September 26 Rate Hike Probability for September 13:  100.0% (View the probability chart here)

A Look At The S&P 500 Chart – KEY Levels

  • RSI is above 50 which signifies some form of bullishness.
  • On Balance Volume is at its moving average.
  • The market has been on a mid-term bullish run which began in April and remains intact.
  • With today’s price action, the market broke a short term bearish skid and resumes its previous bullish run as it approaches its previous all-time highs.


A Look Into the Heat Map

The market outperformed today with the help of large-cap Tech, Healthcare, and Industrials which benefited from trade talks with China.


(click on symbol for chart)
SPX – Bullish 
DOW– Bullish
Nasdaq– Bullish
Russell – Bullish

VIX – 12.34


Oil (USO)Bullish
Ag (DBA)Bearish 
GLD Bearish  


UUP USD weighted ETF – Bullish – The US dollar is pulling back from a recent strong rally which saw it put a 2-year high. Look for 94 on the Dollar Index to be a strong level of support and somewhere where the dollar should theoretically look to turn around and resume a new bullish run.



The market has resumes its previous bullish trend with the short term retracement completed. Look for it to retest its prior all-time highs which should serve as new resistance. At the same time, seeing the ARHI3M-ARLO3M indicator we discussed yesterday continue to flash negative for so many days in a row does put a little fear in the back of my head as it usually leads broader market activity while the S&P tends to lag a bit.

The ARHI3M-ARLO3M indicator that we use on Think or Swim has flashed negative (below -40) for multiple days in a row in the past few trading session which is used to measure how many companies are putting in new 3-month lows over 3-month highs and tracks thousands of stocks listed on the Archipelago. The broad measure of the market is that more companies are sinking than gaining which means that overall price action is being held up by a few large-cap leaders. Should those give way, the market could capitulate and is usually reliable to foresee the near-term trend.

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