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Market Analysis

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Top 5 Stories in 5 Minutes

Stock Market in 30-Seconds

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Top 5 Stories

Powell Drama

Summary: Treasury yields moved higher as markets reacted to conflicting signals about President Trump’s intent to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell—an idea widely seen as risky and potentially market-shaking.

  • Market on Edge – Yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year at 4.48%, as Trump’s mixed messages about Powell briefly rattled investor confidence.
  • Potential Market Fallout – Analysts warn that firing Powell could trigger a sharp selloff in stocks and a counterproductive spike in long-term yields, raising borrowing costs.
  • Legal & Political Uncertainty – Experts say the courts may ultimately decide if Trump has the power to fire Powell, and history suggests such a move could undermine U.S. central bank independence—raising further market risks.

Trade Talks Heat Up

Summary: As the August 1st tariff deadline approaches, Trump signals progress on deals with India and Europe, while uncertainty lingers over Canada and other trade tensions.

  • India Deal Close – Trump says a tariff deal with India is near, with potential agreements also possible with Europe soon.
  • Canada and Smaller Countries Uncertain – Trump remains noncommittal on Canada tariffs and hints at 10-15% tariffs on smaller countries; Canada responds cautiously.
  • Global Trade Talks Ongoing – Japan and the US reaffirm positions on tariffs, while the EU and UK push for concessions amid broader trade discussions, all against the looming deadline.

TSMC Rides AI Wave

Summary: TSMC posted record profits and strong growth thanks to booming AI chip demand, but warns that trade tensions and economic uncertainty could pose risks ahead.

  • Record-Breaking Quarter – TSMC’s profit jumped 61% year-over-year, beating forecasts as AI and advanced chip demand pushed sales to all-time highs.
  • AI Powers Growth – AI and 5G-related chips made up 60% of revenue, with smaller, faster chips (7nm or below) now driving nearly three-quarters of sales.
  • Risks on the Horizon – While future demand looks strong, TSMC flagged possible challenges from U.S. tariff threats, export controls, and weaker global tech spending.

Crypto Bills Advance

Summary: After two days of infighting and record-long voting, House Republicans narrowly advanced key crypto bills, though divisions raise doubts about final passage.

  • Bills Finally Move Forward – Following a 10-hour standoff and late-night vote, House Republicans approved debate rules for three major crypto bills and a Pentagon funding measure.
  • Deep GOP Divisions – Internal clashes between conservatives and moderates over last-minute changes exposed party fractures and delayed progress.
  • Crypto Industry Setback – Despite the bills advancing, the messy process has tempered industry hopes for clear crypto rules during what was meant to be a pivotal “Crypto Week.

Policy Patience

Summary: Fed officials are in wait-and-see mode as early signs show tariffs could push inflation higher, while the economy grows slowly and uncertainty keeps businesses cautious.

  • Williams: Taking It Slow – Fed Vice Chair says interest rates are at the right level for now, and it’s too early to react to tariffs, which could slowly raise prices through 2026.
  • Bostic: Inflation Not Done – Warns inflation may be picking up again, so it’s not the right time to cut rates; says tariffs are affecting prices in unpredictable ways.
  • Beige Book: Uneven Economy – The economy is growing a bit in most regions, but many businesses are still unsure about the future and are being careful with spending.

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SMTC Breakout by Frank Martin on TradingView.com

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U Breakout by Frank Martin on TradingView.com

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