The Morning Market Report is a daily report delivered to Tackle Trading members. In this report, you’ll receive a summary of major market news, the list of that day’s economic calendar, information regarding the major markets indexes, industry sector performance, commodities, currencies. and links to useful sites and/or stories.
The Morning Market Report is designed to complement the Scouting Reports (available to Pro Members) on Mondays, the Coaches Show on Wednesdays and the Market Recap during the week so make sure to refer to those reports first. This report focuses more on short-term swings in the market (especially overnight futures movements) that can help you best begin you trading morning.
This report can be part of your 7 Step Process to Successful Trading. By helping you start at the top of the markets, choosing a trading strategy, and finding and analyzing potential trades. So don’t start trading uninformed; add the Morning Market Report to your daily routine.
- Things to watch for this morning: The rig count may shed some light on the how the US continues to scale up its production of crude oil.
- 9:40 AM ET – Robert Kaplan Speaks
- 11:30 AM ET – Neel Kashkari Speaks
- 1:00 PM ET – Baker-Hughes Rig Count
- Inflation data fails to convince markets of additional Fed rate hike – July inflation data that came out generally weaker than expected on Friday caused markets to decrease the odds that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates once again this year. Read More…
- Asian markets ended sharply lower – as Trump increased the confrontational rhetoric with the Shanghai Composite ending 1.6% lower and South Korea’s Kospi down 1.7%. The Japanese stock market was closed for a holiday. Read more…
- European shares also lower – 5:56AM ET the European benchmark Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0.80%, Germany’s DAX fell 0.43%, while London’s FTSE 100 traded down 1.19%.
Major Index Futures
- Market Review – The Nasdaq skidded 2.1%, closing under its 50-day moving average. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average fell 1.4% and 0.9%, respectively. Of the three, only the Dow closed above its 50-day line.
- S&P 500 – 2441 –
- Dow 30 – 21,853 –
- Nasdaq 100 – 5,802
- SmallCap 2000– 1373
- S&P 500 VIX – 14.976 – historically the average is between 16-20
- Charts Below are 2-Month Daily (I have added VEU which is World Markets excluding the US) along with the other indexes.
- Commodity Movements – Markets have switched, markets are in a rally this morning and commodities are dropping
- Gold – $1289 – falling hard this morning
- Silver -16.928 -falling hard this morning
- Crude Oil – $48.44 – may have reached the top of its trend, or may be forming a base, watch for OPEC/ Non-Opec meeting news for movement catalyst
- Natural Gas – $2.986 –
- Charts Below are 2-Month Daily
- Sector Trading Thoughts – As we enter a new month sector rotation is a given, refer this week’s Market Scoreboard for an in-depth look at what to expect for the sectors. For paying members of Tackle Trading click here…
- Strongest Sectors – Financials (XLF) that had been trading sideways have done very well recently (it might be their time for a breakout), and watch technology XLK (has been the strongest but also the most volatile) and Utilities that had been doing poorly are now doing well (sector rotation). I would also watch Real Estate XLRE for future moves to the upside.
- Weakest Sectors – Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary
- The charts below show how the sectors did yesterday and the 5-day sector performance.
- The chart below shows the last 20 days of sector performance.
- I have added two additional sectors to the 2-month charts below. Retail (XRT) and Biotech (XBI).
Dynamic Yield Curve
- This chart is an important indicator to watch. watch for a flat or inverted yield curve as a potential early indicator of a market correction.
- The dynamic yield curve is still looking fine with the short term rates below the long term rates.
- USD – $93.11– bounced off a strong support at $92.50 but the long-term the trend is still bearish
- Bitcoin – $3,534.33 – bullish hit new highs this week
- Ethereum – $299.13 – very bullish
- Litecoin – $46.84 – volatile bullish
- The Charts Below are 3-Month Daily
- Cryptocurrency 1-Month Charts
Tackle Trading 25
- Trading Thoughts on the Tackle Trading 25 – first beware of stocks going into earnings (if you see a blue “?” click on it and get the earning date)
- Identifying the Major Trend – if the 50 SMA (simple moving average) is over the 200 SMA that is a long term bullish trend, and if the 50 SMA is below the 200 SMA that is a bearish trend
- For Bullish Trends – Naked Puts, Covered Calls, and for stocks over $100 Bull Put Spreads
- For Neutral Trends – Iron Condors are great for stagnant stocks
- For Bearish Trends – Bear Call Spreads (be careful with overly aggressive directional trades like Shorting or buying Puts)
- Tip: If you are going to buy options look for lower Implied Volatility or if you are looking to sell Options look for higher Implied Volatility. That will ensure that you are paid well if you are a seller of options and of course that you are able to buy options at a bargain.
- -1 to 0 (Neutral to slightly bearish) Market Bias – Markets are rising fast this morning and commodities are falling just as fast, but its Friday so watch for possible ups and downs. Happy Trading!
Bearish Neutral Bullish
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3
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Hector Duenas Jr. started his trading journey during the height of the tech bubble in 2001 as part of the 90% that loses money in the stock market.
A Rich Dad conference in 2016 changed his life and now he writes the Morning Market Reports for Tackle Trading.
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