9 Minute Read

Tackle Today: Stagflation? Nah.

July 18, 2022

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«Employment is too strong.»


With inflation readings their highest in 40 years and the economy starting to slow, you might be hearing the term “stagflation” thrown about with greater frequency these days. Per Wikipedia, “stagflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high.”

There’s no denying we have two of the three qualifying phenomenon. Inflation is sky-high and the economy is indeed cooling. But the labor market is rock solid with the unemployment rate at an oh-so-low 3.5%. For that reason, this is not a repeat of the 1970s. Doomsayers preaching stagflation are overplaying their hand.

Video Of The Day: Gino’s Gems – How to know what stocks are in an ETF #tradinghacks

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Chart of the Day: Labor Market during Recessions

Chart of the Day: Labor Market during Recessions
Source: Goldman Sachs

“While labor market data has historically lagged other economic indicators, we find that it would be historically unusual for the labor market to appear as strong as it is at present even at the very outset of a recession, even in real time. Nonfarm payrolls have grown at an annualized pace of 3.0% over the last three months and 3.7% over the last six, roughly double the typical pace at the start of past recessions.”

Goldman Sachs

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