One day and counting until the most important election of our … blah, bleh, yuck. Can’t even finish the sentence. I’m pretty sure I’ve heard that phrase ahead of EVERY election in my lifetime.
I have zero insight or guesses on who will win and how the market will react. But this I do know. The world will keep on turning. Stocks will continue to be the place to be if you want the best chance at generating inflation-beating returns. If the market crashes in the wake of the election it will be temporary and ultimately a great buying opportunity.
It always is.
But since it’s in vogue right now to pontificate on how one is positioning into the main event, I’ll throw my hat into the ring. Context matters for discussions like this, so here’s mine. I have both a passive, long-term account and a slightly more active, long-term account. Here are my thoughts on both heading into tomorrow’s brawl.
Passive
Do I like my asset allocation? Yes. Am I comfortable with risk exposure and how it will react if Armageddon comes to town? Yes. I have some stocks, U.S. and Foreign, large-cap and small. And then there’s REITs and gold. Sprinkle in a condor or two for good measure and voila! I’ve got a well-diversified portfolio poised to profit over time regardless of whatever short-term turmoil we witness over the coming days.
Game Plan: Sit tight, grab the popcorn, and watch the media collectively implode if Trump pulls out a victory.
Active
This one is a little more interesting. The recent market swoon stopped me out of any bull swing trades, and I haven’t loaded up on any bear plays in light of the looming uncertainty.
I have a far OTM bull put on Disney, but am comfortable buying shares if the Mouse House plunges, so I’m letting it ride.
I have a few core covered call positions in SLV, EEM and IWM. I’m happy with the premium remaining in the current short calls, and see no reason why any further adjustments are needed. If the market pukes after Tuesday then so be it. I’ll continue selling calls and wait for the inevitable recovery. If we’re lucky enough, a big bear market will emerge like March where I can snatch up more shares on the cheap.
Looking skyward, there are a few RUT condors flocking around but with their wide wings and comfortable distance out-of-the-money, there’s no reason to modify.
Finally, I scooped up some shares of KO and VZ this year for long-term cash flow positions. No chance on bailing on those. I’m comfortable with the size and willing to add more into weakness.
In summary, I’m doing zero, zip, zilch. I’ve assessed my risk and found it reasonable. Your move, Mr. Market.
Legal Disclaimer
Tackle Trading LLC (“Tackle Trading”) is providing this website and any related materials, including newsletters, blog posts, videos, social media postings and any other communications (collectively, the “Materials”) on an “as-is” basis. This means that although Tackle Trading strives to make the information accurate, thorough and current, neither Tackle Trading nor the author(s) of the Materials or the moderators guarantee or warrant the Materials or accept liability for any damage, loss or expense arising from the use of the Materials, whether based in tort, contract, or otherwise. Tackle Trading is providing the Materials for educational purposes only. We are not providing legal, accounting, or financial advisory services, and this is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any stocks, options, or other financial instruments or investments. Examples that address specific assets, stocks, options or other financial instrument transactions are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to represent specific trades or transactions that we have conducted. In fact, for the purpose of illustration, we may use examples that are different from or contrary to transactions we have conducted or positions we hold. Furthermore, this website and any information or training herein are not intended as a solicitation for any future relationship, business or otherwise, between the users and the moderators. No express or implied warranties are being made with respect to these services and products. By using the Materials, each user agrees to indemnify and hold Tackle Trading harmless from all losses, expenses and costs, including reasonable attorneys’ fees, arising out of or resulting from user’s use of the Materials. In no event shall Tackle Trading or the author(s) or moderators be liable for any direct, special, consequential or incidental damages arising out of or related to the Materials. If this limitation on damages is not enforceable in some states, the total amount of Tackle Trading’s liability to the user or others shall not exceed the amount paid by the user for such Materials.
All investing and trading in the securities market involves a high degree of risk. Any decisions to place trades in the financial markets, including trading in stocks, options or other financial instruments, is a personal decision that should only be made after conducting thorough independent research, including a personal risk and financial assessment, and prior consultation with the user’s investment, legal, tax and accounting advisers, to determine whether such trading or investment is appropriate for that user.
One Reply to “Tales of a Technician: Election Positioning”
Calmness of mind n_n
Comments are closed.