«Will We Get a Bounce?»
Coach Mark here.
The markets have been in a bit of the pullback to start the year in equities and we tested the 20-day moving average yesterday. Pullbacks in uptrends are normal and often a healthy thing. Markets tend to be more extreme than ever and in those extreme conditions we tend to get overextended. Those overextended conditions make it difficult to extend the uptrend without a cooling off period which pullbacks tend to provide.
The question on a pullback is always “how far is going to go” along with the natural worries that accompany the pullback. One of the things that are supportive of pullbacks are rising moving averages on multiple time frames. While a trader might be worrying how far a pullback might go, algos are often buying at those rising moving averages providing short-term support.
I am teaching my Hard 14 class tonight which focuses on moving averages. I have analyzed a lot of uptrends over the decades in similar conditions to the one we are in now and during the first real pullback that occurs a rising moving average always seems to act as support in the short-term. Sometimes it is the 20-daily moving average, sometimes it is a weekly moving average…but one always seems to be there in the short-term to help stabilize price.
Eventually trends can break but this is no easy task. It is why traders will look at pullbacks as an opportunity to get into the existing trend rather than trying to guess when it will end.
Have a fantastic Thursday!
Chart of the Day: S&P 500
Rising moving averages are a hallmark of uptrends. While you might not be paying attention, algos are looking at pullbacks to rising moving averages as potential buying points.
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