«This is the trickiest question»
Banks are back to their bearish ways as we close the week with KRE retesting its lows. Small caps are following suit, with the Russell 2000 now a stone’s throw from last year’s lows. Bears would have you believe doom is imminent and a recession is guaranteed. They may be right (at least about the recession part), but it’s worth pondering one crucial question.
What’s priced in?
With KRE back at its lows, shares are down nearly 50% from last year’s highs.
Meanwhile, IWM (the most economically sensitive of the big four indices) is down 31% from its 2022 peak.
Sure, they could get worse, but at a certain point, the market has sniffed out the downturn and baked it in ahead of time. This is why you hear, “the stock market is not the economy.” And it’s why the historical relationship between the stock market’s annual returns and GDP or corporate profit growth/shrinking year to year is entirely random.
Chart of the Day: Regional Banks (KRE)
Will old support hold, or is a new breakdown imminent?
Today’s line up
Traders Lounge 11 AM EST
Join the coaches in this live lounge, ask questions, discuss ideas or just sit back and listen to veteran traders discuss market conditions.
Cash Flow Club Replay
If you missed last night’s webinar or would like to watch it again, check it out here.
Halftime Report 12:30 PM EST
The Halftime Report starts at 12:30 EST and covers what news is driving the market, chart analysis from the movers and shakers of the day, and fun in a way that only the Coaches at Tackle Trading can deliver.
Financial freedom is a journey
Sign up now and gain unfettered access to all of the quality content and powerful Scouting Reports that our Pro Members enjoy for 15-days absolutely free with no strings attached and let us show you what your trading has been missing.
Tackle Trading LLC (“Tackle Trading”) is providing this website and any related materials, including newsletters, blog posts, videos, social media postings and any other communications (collectively, the “Materials”) on an “as-is” basis. This means that although Tackle Trading strives to make the information accurate, thorough and current, neither Tackle Trading nor the author(s) of the Materials or the moderators guarantee or warrant the Materials or accept liability for any damage, loss or expense arising from the use of the Materials, whether based in tort, contract, or otherwise. Tackle Trading is providing the Materials for educational purposes only. We are not providing legal, accounting, or financial advisory services, and this is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any stocks, options, or other financial instruments or investments. Examples that address specific assets, stocks, options or other financial instrument transactions are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to represent specific trades or transactions that we have conducted. In fact, for the purpose of illustration, we may use examples that are different from or contrary to transactions we have conducted or positions we hold. Furthermore, this website and any information or training herein are not intended as a solicitation for any future relationship, business or otherwise, between the users and the moderators. No express or implied warranties are being made with respect to these services and products. By using the Materials, each user agrees to indemnify and hold Tackle Trading harmless from all losses, expenses and costs, including reasonable attorneys’ fees, arising out of or resulting from user’s use of the Materials. In no event shall Tackle Trading or the author(s) or moderators be liable for any direct, special, consequential or incidental damages arising out of or related to the Materials. If this limitation on damages is not enforceable in some states, the total amount of Tackle Trading’s liability to the user or others shall not exceed the amount paid by the user for such Materials.
All investing and trading in the securities market involves a high degree of risk. Any decisions to place trades in the financial markets, including trading in stocks, options or other financial instruments, is a personal decision that should only be made after conducting thorough independent research, including a personal risk and financial assessment, and prior consultation with the user’s investment, legal, tax and accounting advisers, to determine whether such trading or investment is appropriate for that user.