Traders,

Another Fed day has arrived, and the markets are riding high into the event. With risk assets on the rise and volatility in the tank, there certainly isn’t much fear. The markets are betting that today’s 25 basis point hike will be the second to last.

While economics and analysts will be laser-focused on parsing the language of the Fed, traders should put the most weight on the market’s reaction. The past year has seen many a Fed announcement deliver a rug-pull to the markets. So, one must remain open to that possibility. Then again, the price action and inflation readings are far better than in previous meetings.

If you want to keep your life simple, focus on the vital support and resistance zones in the S&P 500. Breaking them will determine if you should upgrade or downgrade your market bias.

S&P 500 (SPY)

Monday’s low near $400 is a short-term support level. $408-$410 is resistance.  

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