CPI data out today and a lot of “lowest since” out there in the data.

• Headline CPI came in at 3.0% – that is the lowest since March 2021 and is the 12^th straight month of YoY declines which is the longest streak of declines in history
• CORE CPI fell to 4.8% – that is the lowest since OCT 2021
• Core Services CPI Ex-Shelter, something the Fed is watching closely fell to 3.93% – that is the lowest since January 2021

All these numbers beat expectations and markets from equities to precious metals are reacting positively to the news. The rally is broad based with both growth and cyclicals up nicely.  

Yields are also dropping on the news which will be pivotal for policymakers in the months ahead. This soft data could sow some doubts about the need to hike again. It will be interesting to see what Fed members say today and in the coming days after the CPI report. Do they back off their recent hawkish dialogue or do they keep pushing the “higher for longer” mantra.  

Lot’s to breakdown on the Halftime Report today so don’t miss out!

SPY

There is no shortage of bullish charts out there today with broad participation in the SPY breakout.

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