Coach Mark here.

When you look at the calendar, this is an easy week to spot what day is important. With all due respect to the PPI report on Thursday and the consumer sentiment data on Friday, Wednesday (CPI and Fed Day) is the day to get your proverbial (or literal) popcorn out to enjoy any market excitement that might ensue.

We have a market that is a little rudderless right now. Big cap tech? That has been powering forward. Plenty of direction there. Nvidia? That is designing new AI rudders as we speak. However, large sections of the market have not been participating in 2024 and price action in recent weeks has been sporadic. The market as defined by a few stocks. Perfect clarity. The rest of the market? A tad confused.

The market does not have a driving theme right now. Inflation has been hot at times and moderate at others. Economic data has been mixed. The Fed’s communication in the last six weeks has been all over the place. My brother Matt in the podcast had fantastic analysis on the market in the Trading Justice podcast this week. His bottom line? The markets will not be able to break out of its current confusion until the Fed provides clarity on its coming monetary plans. You can watch the podcast (and it was a special one) here.

Jay Powell has the chance to provide that clarity on Wednesday. The CPI consumer inflationary data comes out that morning and Jay Powell speaks in the afternoon after the Fed Announcement. If he signals rate cuts are coming (especially if the CPI comes in soft) then watch areas of the market that have been confused (small-caps, RSP) suddenly find some clarity.

We will break it all down in further detail on the Halftime Report today. Have a fantastic Monday!

Chart of the Day: Nvidia (NVDA)

Nvidia enjoyed its 10:1 split today and is now trading at much cheaper levels. Technicals? They did not change as moving averages naturally move over to adjust to the new post-split price.  

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