Coach Mark here.

Hope everyone is having a great week! Gold is on my mind this morning. I am not looking to enter a new play today…or maybe even this week but I am curious to follow its price action this week as I think it could tell a story.

One year ago, we had a hot February jobs report that sent gold tumbling dramatically over a two-day time period and led to a multi-week downtrend. The hot February jobs report let the whole world know that the economy was hot and The Fed was not done raising interest rates. It put pressure on gold, bonds, and equities until the banking crisis reversed price action. Gold would top out after the banking crisis in a “higher for longer” atmosphere.

One year later, we had another hot February jobs report on Friday and similarly we have had two down days on gold, although not nearly as dramatic as the two down days last year. However, we aren’t exactly in a “higher for longer” atmosphere, are we? The Fed has made it clear they intend to cut interest rates this year and the debate is now how many cuts are we going to get. Not the same fearful “how many interest rate HIKES are we going to get” atmosphere from last year is it?

 If gold holds here and reclaims price action then I think it is telling not just for gold, but also tells us a bigger story. A story that could be supportive of gold, silver, bonds, and a lot of equity classes that have not exactly participated in the good times in 2024 to this point.

Will elaborate further on the Halftime Report today. Have a fantastic Tuesday!

Chart of the Day: Gold Futures (/GC)

Very curious at price development on gold in the coming days. It could be very telling.

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