«Fasten Your Seatbelts»

Coach Mark here.

My brother Matt and I both labeled today’s inflationary data the most important report of the year so far for good reason. After two months of hot data, all eyes were on the March CPI report issued today and there was a lot of apprehension coming into the report. Another hot reading would make three in a row and concerns about the reemergence of inflation would be front and center. If a cool reading came in, bulls would have their goldilocks narrative of economic growth and falling inflation.

Well, the numbers came in and make it three in a row as inflation readings come in hotter than expected in every single metric. Headline CPI came it hotter than expected on a monthly basis and the year-over-year number rose to 3.5%. Core SPY also came in hotter than expect and the year-over-year rose to 3.8%. SuperCore CPI rose 0.7%, also hotter than expected. Not a lot of reprieve anywhere in the numbers looking for inflation to moderate.

In reaction to the numbers yields are up, the dollar is up, and rate cut odds for 2024 are down significantly. You likely will hear increasing chatter about the possibility of rate hikes because of these numbers…something Fed member Bowman floated out there on Friday.

More producer inflation comes out tomorrow and of course earnings season kicks off on Friday and has increased importance after these numbers. We will break down all the charts and the macro backdrop on the Halftime Report today! Come join us for some world-class analysis!


U.S. Dollar ($DXY)

Power move in the dollar today after the hot inflationary data. Risk assets don’t want to see a breakout here.

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