Trade Tensions Ease

Signs of a thaw in global trade tensions are emerging, with both the U.S. and China signaling a willingness to de-escalate. Bloomberg reports that China is considering suspending its 125% tariffs on select U.S. imports, with exemptions potentially including medical equipment, ethane, and industrial chemicals. Several Chinese tech firms have also confirmed exemptions on eight tariff codes tied to semiconductors and integrated circuits, according to Caijing. Sources suggest that a broader deal could materialize within the next three to four weeks. Meanwhile, South Korea’s Trade Minister announced a framework agreement in principle with the U.S., with negotiations reportedly advancing faster than expected. This wave of positive developments follows several days of softened trade rhetoric, in what appears to be a coordinated effort between President Trump and advisor Bessent. Their messaging has helped stabilize sentiment and allowed markets to regain their footing, as investors begin to price in a lower risk of renewed escalation.

Google Beats, Buyback Announced

Alphabet (GOOGL) reported earnings of $2.81 per share on revenue of $90.23 billion for the first quarter ended March 2025. The consensus earnings estimate was $2.02 per share.. The company beat expectations by 41.92% while revenue grew 12.04% on a year-over-year basis.

Additional Color

• The company announced a 5% increase to the dividend
• New $70 billion stock buyback authorization
• Capital expenditures came in hotter than expected, at $17.2BN, up 43% YoY, and just above the median estimate of $17.1BN.
• Alphabet executives warned its ad business could feel the impacts of the ongoing trade war, if advertisers pull back.
• Operating margin 34% vs. 32% y/y, beat estimate 32.3%

Demand for AI Data Centers Accelerates

Despite growing concerns about a potential recession, demand for AI data centers remains strong, according to top executives from Amazon and Nvidia. Speaking at a conference hosted by the Hamm Institute for American Energy, Amazon Web Services VP Kevin Miller emphasized that demand is not just stable but accelerating: “We continue to see very strong demand… the numbers [are] only going up.” Echoing that optimism, Nvidia’s Josh Parker noted, “We haven’t seen a pullback,” signaling continued momentum even as broader tech investment shows signs of caution. Their comments suggest that AI infrastructure spending may prove resilient—even countercyclical—in an economic downturn.

Intel Earnings – Cut and Paste from Earnings Whisper

Intel (INTC) reported earnings of $0.13 per share on revenue of $12.67 billion for the first quarter ended March 2025. The consensus estimate was for breakeven results on revenue of $12.32 billion. The company beat expectations by 750.00% while revenue fell 0.45% compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company said it expects second quarter non-GAAP earnings of approximately breakeven on revenue of $11.20 billion to $12.40 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.04 per share on revenue of $12.84 billion for the quarter ending June 30, 2025.

Additional Color

• Intel said its second-quarter guidance reflected elevated uncertainty driven by the macro environment.
• Intel said it’s planning to cut operational and capital expenses, removing management layers, in order to become more efficient. 

CEO Lip-Bu Tan Comments:

• “The first quarter was a step in the right direction, but there are no quick fixes as we work to get back on a path to gaining market share and driving sustainable growth,” Tan said in a statement.
• “The first quarter was a step in the right direction, but there are no quick fixes as we work to get back on a path to gaining market share and driving sustainable growth”
• “I am taking swift actions to drive better execution and operational efficiency while empowering our engineers to create great products. We are going back to basics by listening to our customers and making the changes needed to build the new Intel.”

Earnings Blitz – All from Earnings Whisper

• T-Mobile US (TMUS) reported earnings of $2.58 per share on revenue of $20.89 billion for the first quarter ended March 2025. The consensus earnings estimate was $2.45 per share on revenue of $20.60 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $2.54 per share. The company beat expectations by 1.57% while revenue grew 6.59% on a year-over-year basis. The company reported fewer new wireless phone subscribers than analysts expected in the first quarter.
• SLB (SLB) reported earnings of $0.72 per share on revenue of $8.49 billion for the . The consensus earnings estimate was $0.74 per share on revenue of $8.61 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $0.75 per share. The company missed expectations by 4.00% while revenue fell 2.49% compared to the same quarter a year ago.
• AbbVie (ABBV) reported earnings of $2.46 per share on revenue of $13.34 billion for the . The consensus earnings estimate was $2.39 per share on revenue of $12.88 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $2.41 per share. The company beat expectations by 2.07% while revenue grew 8.39% on a year-over-year basis. The company said it expects 2025 earnings of $12.22 to $12.42 per share, excluding items of $0.13 per share. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $12.12 to $12.32 per share, and the current consensus earnings estimate is $12.19 per share for the year ending December 31, 2025.

What’s Coming Up at Tackle Trading?

The Tackle Trading Newsletter will be released later today with full analysis of all the week’s key events, earnings results, and of course an in-depth look at the technical landscape.

The Trading Justice Podcast will be released this weekend and Matt and Mark will discuss all the top stories in their colorful and insightful manner.

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)

One of the stories of the week has been the leadership of technology. Between de-escalation on the trade war front with China to robust earnings, it has been a good week for technology. There are also other narratives on the AI front brewing leading to a lot of interest in technology oriented patterns in the coming trading sessions.