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Markets are attempting to stabilize after a volatility back end of the week. A “hawkish cut” on Wednesday started the volatility and worries about a potential government shutdown have added to some anxiety. On the plus side the market is ending the week with an inflationary report that missed expectations resulting in the dollar and yields falling this morning. In addition, many areas of the market are in extreme oversold conditions on the short-term which tend to produce bounces once stability sets in.
That stability has been hard to find in your average stock in recent weeks. We have known what we are looking for but it has not manifested itself yet. This is a big week of analysis and we are already hard at work on the Tackle Trading Newsletter breaking all the technical and macro analysis down for you to be prepared for the week ahead. Be sure to read it this weekend and listen to the Trading Justice podcast for in depth Fed analysis released on Saturday.
Stocks in the News
- Nike (NKE): Reported EPS of $0.78 ($0.63) with a 30.00% beat, and revenue of $12.35B (-7.72% YoY). Q3 revenue guidance decreased by 6% to approximately $10.88B (from $11.63B consensus). Despite beating expectations, shares are down 1.5%, unable to build momentum off the results.
- FedEx (FDX): Reported EPS of $4.05 ($3.90) with a 4.38% beat, and revenue of $21.97B (-0.89% YoY). FY25 EPS guidance decreased by 5% to $19.00-$20.00 (from $20.00-$21.00), and revenue decreased by 2.5% to approximately $87.69B. Shares gapped up 15 points but sold off, now hovering at the 200 SMA.
- Carnival (CCL): Reported EPS of $0.14 ($0.08) with a 16.67% beat, and revenue of $5.94B (+10.02% YoY). FY25 EPS guidance reaffirmed at $1.70. Shares are up 3% after better-than-expected results.
Economic Reports
A little reprieve on the inflationary front with the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, CORE PCE, printing cooler than expected coming in at 0.1% MoM versus 0.2% expectations. The year-over-year number came in at 2.8% versus 2.9% expectations. Headline rose to 2.4% but overall this was the type of report that is going to relieve some anxiety on the inflationary side of the equation and could put a short-term top in bond yields.
Next 24 Hours
We will be releasing the Tackle Trading Newsletter with full analysis of a busy week. The Fed was part of that week and we will be discussing it in the Newsletter and in depth in the Trading Justice podcast this weekend.
Have a fantastic weekend!!!
Equal Weighted S&P 500 (RSP)
Could we get a green candle on RSP today? The inflationary data is providing some positive vibes in the market this morning and we will see if it holds. We are still a ways from proper pattern development but your average stock is in oversold conditions and bottoming formations here would not be a shocking development.
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