~Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me!~
Traders awoke to another nasty down-gap this morning. The epicenter of the selling frenzy was once again the tech sector, with the Nasdaq opening down nearly 4%.
Fear was in the air, and the VIX quickly popped to 36, falling short of Friday’s high. To those who missed Friday’s intraday rebound, I believe this morning’s whack gave you a second chance to buy the blood.
Last week’s Options Theory blog laid out the Fade the Fear trade and I’m using today to reiterate the idea. While there’s a small chance that panic selling your positions this morning ends up looking smart, I highly doubt it. Adding this morning’s 4% thrashing to last week’s retreat brings the QQQ’s peak-to-trough correction to 10.6%. And NOW you want to panic? Why?
The bulk of the damage, if not all of it, has already transpired. I’ve learned through painful experience that it rarely pays to panic sell into these down-gaps. And we’re not even mentioning the fact that we were opening at major support zones like the 50-day moving average. The open also served as a re-test of Friday’s lows – which, by the way, are holding firm.
Just look at AAPL, TSLA, AMZN, ZM, or any other favorite tech stock. The lot of them were begging to be bought this morning, not sold. But you didn’t have to do so blindly. Price action told you buyers were emerging.
Here’s the intraday action in QQQ:
Now, I don’t know if the bounce is going to hold. No one does. All I’m saying is it rarely pays to panic sell everything on a down open like this.
For my part, I like strategically dipping my toes in the water with short puts and bull puts. The sky-high implied volatility is making the paydays handsome. For instance, the following bull puts offer over 10% ROI.
QQQ Oct $230/$225 bull put
AAPL Oct $90/$85 bull put
AMD Oct $62.50/$57.50 bull put
ZM Oct $250/$240 bull put
I could throw out a dozen more examples. We can quibble over the timing or whether or not today’s bounce sticks. You can hedge your bet by scaling in. Regardless, there’s no denying this is a tempting entry point for selling puts, particularly if you missed Friday’s low the first go around.
Legal Disclaimer
Tackle Trading LLC (“Tackle Trading”) is providing this website and any related materials, including newsletters, blog posts, videos, social media postings and any other communications (collectively, the “Materials”) on an “as-is” basis. This means that although Tackle Trading strives to make the information accurate, thorough and current, neither Tackle Trading nor the author(s) of the Materials or the moderators guarantee or warrant the Materials or accept liability for any damage, loss or expense arising from the use of the Materials, whether based in tort, contract, or otherwise. Tackle Trading is providing the Materials for educational purposes only. We are not providing legal, accounting, or financial advisory services, and this is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any stocks, options, or other financial instruments or investments. Examples that address specific assets, stocks, options or other financial instrument transactions are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to represent specific trades or transactions that we have conducted. In fact, for the purpose of illustration, we may use examples that are different from or contrary to transactions we have conducted or positions we hold. Furthermore, this website and any information or training herein are not intended as a solicitation for any future relationship, business or otherwise, between the users and the moderators. No express or implied warranties are being made with respect to these services and products. By using the Materials, each user agrees to indemnify and hold Tackle Trading harmless from all losses, expenses and costs, including reasonable attorneys’ fees, arising out of or resulting from user’s use of the Materials. In no event shall Tackle Trading or the author(s) or moderators be liable for any direct, special, consequential or incidental damages arising out of or related to the Materials. If this limitation on damages is not enforceable in some states, the total amount of Tackle Trading’s liability to the user or others shall not exceed the amount paid by the user for such Materials.
All investing and trading in the securities market involves a high degree of risk. Any decisions to place trades in the financial markets, including trading in stocks, options or other financial instruments, is a personal decision that should only be made after conducting thorough independent research, including a personal risk and financial assessment, and prior consultation with the user’s investment, legal, tax and accounting advisers, to determine whether such trading or investment is appropriate for that user.
One Reply to “Tales of a Technician: Fool Me Once”
Thanks Tyler.
It is an interesting market.
Great premiums on the put side.
Comments are closed.