Tales of a Technician: Tricky Crosscurrents | Tackle Trading: The #1 rated trading education platform

Tales of a Technician: Tricky Crosscurrents

crosscurrent

With Monday’s 1.19% pop, the Russell 2000 has officially risen 20% off its late-December lows. That’s a BEAST of a move in such a short span (6 weeks). The relentlessness of the rise is made clear with one stat: In the past 27 trading sessions we’ve only seen 5 down days.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have seen similar recoveries of their own. To those anchoring on last year’s lows, this move looks extremely overbought. Meanwhile, bulls comparing today’s prices to last year’s peak contend prices remain attractive at around 13% off the highs. It’s a discount worth shopping, they say.

I’d caution against using December’s low as your anchor point from here on out or you’ll never be willing to turn bullish. The same goes for virtually any market correction. When it’s over, it’s over. So either be willing to wade back into the waters when conditions improve, and trends turn higher – or realize you may be waiting for months until the next crisis hits.

With the market now having reclaimed half of the ground lost during last quarter’s plunge, it sits in no man’s land. Now is as good a time as any to identify the many themes that now serve as tricky crosscurrents for divining direction.

Here are three best feathers in the bulls’ cap.

A Flock of Doves

First, and always foremost, the Fed. Three months ago hawks were dominating the money tree. Inflation was public enemy number one, and additional rate hikes were being prepped for deployment in 2019.

But December’s crash was a clarion call for the doves that had long since left the nest to return home. And return they did, with a vengeance. Not only are further rate hikes off the table, but the Fed is also toying with changing the pace of their balance sheet reduction.

With the so-called “Fed put” back in business investors now heart stocks.

Low Bar = Easy Hurdle

Second, earnings weren’t as bad as expected. The behavior surrounding Apple’s report is a microcosm of what we’re seeing across the market at large. The stock was slammed at the turn of the year on fears of a crappy Q4 and tepid forward guidance. Then when it reported, participants cheered that the results weren’t that bad and promptly bid the stock to the moon.

The following graphic from @bespokeinvest illustrates just how well stocks have been reacting to earnings.

bespoke earnings
Buy! Buy! Buy!

Here’s the way I think of it. Quarterly earnings report provide a reality check to the illusions created by sentiment shifts in fickle investors. The perception throughout Q4 was that we were doomed and an earnings beat down was imminent. The pendulum swung too far, and most stocks are correcting the misstep with strong rallies post-earnings.

Price, the Ultimate Arbiter

The third and final feather is a compelling one: price action. The stubborn unwillingness of the market to give back an inch of its gains over the past six weeks is impressive. Of the five down days in IWM mentioned above only two of them have been remotely significant. The other three were mere pauses. So, really we’ve only seen two legit down days in 27 trading sessions.

I find it impossible not to be bullish during such a one-sided onslaught.

Now, what of the bearish arguments? Because this post is running long, let’s keep this part brief. Slowing growth, weakening earnings and an ongoing trade war. Those are my top three.

But the ever-present challenge with news and narratives is you never know what’s priced in. That’s why, in the end, price should always be your guide. And for now, price says to bet on bulls.

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