We are maintaining the S&P 500 ranking at +25, a slightly bullish posture, as the index continues to work through its breakout leg toward the 6,950 wave three target. The pullback that began two weeks ago was built into the ranking, and this week delivered the confirmation we were looking for. The market responded with a strong run early in the week before consolidating into Friday’s close, leaving us in the middle of the move between pivot and target.

Heading into next week, the market is at a decision point. A confirmed pivot at current levels would keep the bullish playbook intact, while a deeper retracement would test the strength of the breakout trend. Either way, the retracement is providing valuable information about the market’s health and where buyers are willing to defend.

The market held its breakout structure through Fed week, with all four major indexes trending above their rising 9-EMA. Both the Dow and Russell 2000 recently broke out without becoming extended, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are pressing higher but now carry short-term overextension signals. Momentum remains healthy, yet with SPY running ~30 points off support and RSI stretched above 70, the next phase is likely secondary pattern development rather than a runaway leg. For that reason, we’re maintaining, not upgrading, the bullish ranking.

The market delivered the breakout we were anticipating, and with confirmation across multiple timeframes, we’ve upgraded the S&P 500 +5 points to +25 (Bullish bias). Last week’s ascending triangle pattern compressed into a decision point, and this week price resolved to the upside exactly as expected. The result is a clean breakout that shifts the market posture from late-stage trend and consolidation into the start of a new leg higher.

The market continues to carry a slightly bullish ranking (+30) as price works through a tightening ascending triangle. This phase is less about broad momentum and more about pattern development — specifically, whether support holds to keep the continuation narrative alive or breaks to shift into reversal.

The S&P 500 retains its Slightly Bullish (+1) ranking this week as price continues to consolidate near recent highs without breaking structure. Despite Friday’s sell-off into the 9 EMA, support held and the broader backdrop looks largely unchanged from a week ago. Two straight weekly dojis underline the indecision at current levels, but neither signals deterioration. Instead, the market remains locked between breakout attempts and stalled follow-through, keeping the bias constructive but cautious.