Stocks rallied this past week as the market friendly Fed spurred more gains for equities. The Fed lowered its forecasts for the unemployment rate as well as for GDP growth and inflation. They appear to either be willing to accept lower unemployment or acknowledge that labor force participation is declining. Equities are trending up sharply for the week; option volatility took a big dump. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell almost 19%, and is again approaching the multi-year support level near $12.

The ‘Fear Gauge’ should see some additional movement this week as there is plenty of economic data and Fed-speak due. Bond yields sank like a stone on the equity rally this last week. The 10-year yield fell back below 2% and sits at 1.93%. Dovish Fed comments put a solid bid into Treasuries as many investors believe the risk of a rate rise has been pushed off. Oil futures (/CL) finished the week relatively unchanged, but the daily sessions were volatile. Inventories continue to grow, but rig counts are falling. We should see continued volatility in the energy markets with oil and gas prices near six year lows.

There will be plenty of potential catalysts for markets in the upcoming week. Market watchers are once again blaming weather for the most recent weak numbers, but they’re not where the Fed wants them. For housing, sales have been soft over the winter. With a stronger dollar and weaker growth in Europe and Asia, manufacturing has slowed, relying on domestic demand. Durables orders will point to whether the manufacturing sector returns positive after three monthly declines in manufacturing output ending in February.

Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:
A.M. – FMSA
P.M. –N/A

Tuesday:
A.M. – MKC
P.M.– SONC, SCS

Wednesday:
A.M. – APOL
P.M. – FIVE, LE, PSUN, PAYX, PVH, RHT

Thursday:
A.M. – CAN, CAG, CCL, FRED, LULU, WGO
P.M. – GME, OCN, RH

Friday:
A.M. –BBRY, FINL

Economic Releases (3/23 – 3/27):

Monday:
7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed Activity Index
9:00 am CT– Existing Home Sales
9:00 pm CT –Fed’s Williams Speaks

Tuesday:
5:05 am CT –Fed’s Bullard Speaks
7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index (CPI)
8:00 am CT – House Price Index
8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index – Flash
9:00 am CT – New Home Sales
9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
12:00 pm CT – 2-Year Note Auction Results

Wednesday:
5:30 am CT –Fed’s Evans Speaks
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications
7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
12:00 pm CT – 5-Year Note Auction Results

Thursday:
3:35 am CT –Fed’s Bullard Speaks
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
8:00 am CT –Fed’s Lockhart Speaks
9:00 am CT – PMI Services – Flash
9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories
10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index

Friday:
7:30 am CT – GDP
9:00 am CT– Consumer Sentiment

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