Despite the muted moves this week, the Benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) notched its largest one-month gain since October 2011 by rallying 5.5% in February. The rallies were never massive but the grind higher was consistent for almost the entire month. The accommodative stance from Central Banks around the world had investors pouring into the riskier asset classes such as stocks. in March but we will need geopolitical news and economic data to drive markets as earnings season is essentially over. Almost 90% of the S&P 500 stocks have reported quarterly results and just under 70% have beaten expectations compared with 74% at the same time last year
Option volatility only fell slightly. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell another 6.7% and is approaching the multi-year support level near $12. The ‘Fear Gauge’ should see some additional movement into March as investors may feel the all-time highs are due for a pull-back. The economy continues to grow but not consistently. The bright spot continues to be the consumer due in part to healthy optimism from declining inflation and energy prices. Geopolitical risks may increase also as Greece and the ‘cease fire’ in Ukraine seem to be coiling for a catalyst.
While the fourth quarter got a downgrade, current quarter growth for monthly data are mixed but net moderately positive. Meanwhile, the Fed confirmed that the first rate hike would be no sooner than June. The upcoming week is full of economic data and the all-important Jobs report comes out on Friday. Housing has been mixed but many are predicting a tough Spring selling season. Traders will be watching news on manufacturing and Services this week also. Fed Chair Yellen is speaking again on Tuesday and there will be plenty of Fed-Speak on tap also.

Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:
A.M. – AMBC, BID, SSYS
P.M. –ARNA, CZR, MBI, MCP, MYL, SLXP

Tuesday:
A.M. – AZO, BBY, DKS, KATE, RST
P.M.– BOBE, SWHC

Wednesday:
A.M. – ANF, AEO, PETM, REV, TSL
P.M. – DAR, VSLR

Thursday:
A.M. – CNQ, CIEN, COST, JOY, KR, SFE
P.M. – CKP, DMND, MMI, QIHU, SINA, TFM

Friday:
A.M. –BIG, FL, SPLS

Economic Releases (3/2 – 3/6):

Monday:
7:30 am CT – Personal Income & Outlays
8:45 am CT– PMI Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – Construction Spending

Tuesday:
Auto Sales – All Day
7:15 pm CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

Wednesday:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications
7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report
8:00 am CT – Fed’s Evans Speaks
8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index
9:00 am CT – ISM Non Mfg. Index
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
12:00 pm CT –Fed’s George Speaks
12:00 pm CT –Fed’s Fisher Speaks
1:00 pm CT – Beige Book

Thursday:
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
7:30 am CT – Productivity & Costs
9:00 am CT – Factory Orders
9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

Friday:
7:30 am CT – February Jobs Report
7:30 am CT– International Trade
2:00 pm CT – Consumer Credit

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