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Market Recap: September 17 2015, Fed Day!

September 17, 2015

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ECONOMIC EVENTS & NEWS
All the hype and movement today ends pretty flat on the close.

Dow- Down  0.39%

S&P- Down 0.26%

NASD – up  0.1%

Russell- up .47%

Reminder overall trend still bearish.  Click on index charts below.

The Economic Calendar:

Thursday
FOMC Meeting Rate Decision – Feds leave rates unchanged at 0%.
Jobless claims came in lower at 264k which was expected meaning labor market good & near full employment.

FRIDAY –  Option Expiration!! and Leading Indicators

All eyes were on the Federal Open Market Committee today for most popular of all economic events that move the market: the rate hike decision.  Well, to sum it up Janet and team all voted against a rate hike except for one member that wanted a .25 % hike.  Why they didn’t: many  reasons, but the stuck to the logic that there isn’t a strong enough inflation in the economy in the near term and the threat of global economics that persist. The markets rallied high on good volume, then gave it all back to finish pretty much flat to slightly down. Looking at the CME fed watch predictor the odds even dropped in the future for a hike in October and December. (link below)

Fedwatch link for rate hike predictions =  Oct. 16% chance of raising rates & Dec. = 45%

Link to in depth news for today click here

TRADER THOUGHTS

I personally see a KOD (Kiss of Death). Still and a lot of overhead resistance somewhere below the 2040 level on S&P 500.
The markets are going to be experiencing some volatility as long as the VIX indicator is now at 21%.
we are still vulnerable to the movements in the Chinese markets. We are still in the range for the S&P 500 between the breakdown of 2040, the current resistance, and 1867, the current support.

 

MARKETS
(click on symbol for chart)
SPX –  Bear
DOW–  Bear
Nasd –  Bear
Russ –  Bear

VIX –  25 to 27 range

SECTORS – Trend on daily chart (click symbol for chart)

Materials (XLB) Bear
Energy (XLE)    Bear- 
Financials (XLF)Bear 
Industrials (XLI)Bear
Technology (XLK) Bear
Staples (XLP) –   bear to neutral
Utilities (XLU) –  Bear to neutral
Healthcare (XLV)  Bear
Discretionary (XLY) –  Bear to neutral
Mining (XME) –    Bear to 
Real Estate (IYR) –  Bear
Retail (RTH) –    Bear to neutral
Transports (IYT) – Neutral

Oil (USO) Neutral to posibly setting up,, ( watching for trigger above 15.55)
Ag (DBA)Bear , just put in nice swing high
GLD –   Neutral- keep your eys on this 
SLV –   Neutral – actually like the setup here for a covered call play

WORLD WATCH
VEU – world markets that are NON- USA companies – BEAR
EEM – global emerging markets- Neutral to BEAR 

THE DOLLAR
UUP – USD weighted ETF – Bear big time today after the rate news

COACHES TRADING THOUGHTS

I am seeing a lot of possible KOD’s ( kiss of deaths) in the sectors today, tonight if overseas markets are down, expect us to also follow to the downside, with everything bearish and KOD’s all over the move down could be big.

But, interesting to see how the overseas markets react to our decision from the feds today.

China is the focus with the ripple down affect of Chinese Yuan.  To learn more about Chinese currency war, effect click here for our video.

** Note ,,,Also seeing a few sectors trying to go bullish like Utilities, staples, and possibly descretionary.  Waiting for confirmation first by watching the 10 & 20 Exp Moving averages cross up… Gold might finally be going full bull lets wait for a follow thru and a pullback for a swing low to enter.

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