China Opens Door  

Futures found their footing overnight after China signaled openness to restarting trade negotiations with former President Trump. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 e-mini futures trimmed losses on the report, which outlined China’s preconditions for resuming talks. According to Bloomberg, China is seeking a more respectful diplomatic tone, especially after recent controversial remarks that drew sharp criticism. Additionally, confusion over Washington’s mixed signals has added to tensions—Trump’s stance on Xi Jinping has been measured, but other U.S. voices have been more aggressive. China is also calling for a designated point person from the Trump team to lead the talks. While no deal is imminent, the reopening of negotiations helped stabilize markets overnight.

Nvidia Faces $5.5 Billion Export Charge Amid New U.S. Restrictions

Nvidia is taking a hit from fresh export restrictions, disclosing a $5.5 billion charge tied to shipments of its H20 GPUs to China and other countries. The U.S. government recently informed the chipmaker that it would now require a license to export these advanced AI chips, sparking broader concerns about tightening export controls. The H20, widely used for AI applications, generated an estimated $12–$15 billion in revenue for Nvidia last year. The news rattled chip stocks in premarket trading Wednesday, with Nvidia shares down 5%. AMD, Micron, and ASML also saw declines, as did tech giants Meta and Alphabet.

Retail Sales Surge in March Despite Economic Uncertainty

March retail sales showed resilience, rising 1.4% month-over-month (MoM), the biggest jump since January 2023 and in line with expectations. The year-over-year (YoY) growth of 4.6% marked the highest increase since December 2023, signaling strong consumer spending despite growing economic concerns. This better-than-expected performance came after January’s sharp decline and February’s modest rebound. The advanced estimate from the Commerce Department also showed a 1.4% MoM rise, surpassing the 1.2% forecast, while core sales excluding autos were up 0.5%, beating the expected 0.3% increase.

ASML Tops Q1 Estimates, But Weak Bookings   

ASML (ASML) delivered strong first-quarter results, reporting earnings of $6.31 per share on revenue of $8.14 billion, beating consensus estimates of $6.12 and $8.08 billion, respectively. Revenue surged 41.79% year over year. The company guided Q2 revenue between $7.85 billion and $8.40 billion and reaffirmed its full-year outlook of $32.71 billion to $38.16 billion but quarterly bookings came in well below expectations. CEO Christophe Fouquet said conversations with customers support expectations that both 2025 and 2026 will be growth years, but that tariff-related “uncertainty with certain customers” could lead the company to achieve revenue closer to the lower end of its full-year guidance.

United Airlines Beats Q1 Estimates, But Flags Economic Uncertainty with Dual Guidance

United Airlines (UAL) beat Q1 expectations, reporting earnings of $0.91 per share on $13.21 billion in revenue, slightly below the $13.49 billion forecast. Earnings rose 19.74%, while revenue increased 5.38% year over year. For Q2, United guided earnings between $3.25 and $4.25 per share, matching the Street’s $4.25 estimate. The airline also issued a dual full-year outlook: $11.50 to $13.50 per share in a stable economy, but $7.00 to $9.00 per share in a recession. The consensus estimate is $10.77. United plans a 4% reduction in domestic flying this summer due to softer demand, with economic uncertainty posing a risk for the second half of the year.

What’s Coming Up at Tackle Trading?

The Trader’s Lounge will be held at 1:00 PM EST today as we hold another Macro Monday edition of the lounge. Come start your trading week off right!

The Coaching Master Mind class will be held today at 7:00 PM EST. Coach Greg will discuss advanced topics for our coaching students to help them achieve financial freedom.

Team Phoenix will be held today at 8:30 PM EST. Coach Gino will be helping his trading lab navigate these volatile markets through a variety of time-tested techniques!

Nvidia (NVDA)

Big news on Nvidia today sent it and other semiconductor stocks lower. Be sure to check out Tackle Today as Matt breaks down this and all of the top stories in the market!