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Gold is attempting to break out of a very tight consolidation range and hitting an all-time high this morning. Gold has been an area of the market that we have highlighted numerous times and this trading range has been one we have commented on in the Trader’s Lounge all-week long. A very straight forward chart that we will comment on in Chart of the Day.

Equity markets attempt to fight for control after two weeks of wild intraday price action. Yesterday saw wild intraday swings with selling pressure after the CPI release only to rally strong after getting a little spark from Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang who indicated that demand of AI chips remains robust. Nvidia demonstrated yesterday why it remains an incredibly important stock for overall market sentiment.

Economic news today showed a slight uptick in producer inflationary readings (PPI) and jobless claims staying within their range. The markets now look forward to the Fed meeting next week where markets are pricing in the first cut, but not more than one, of the new cutting cycle.

Stocks in the News

• Kroger (KR): Reported EPS of $0.93, slightly beating estimates, while revenue of $33.91B missed by 0.53%. The company reaffirmed its fiscal year guidance, but concerns remain over the missed revenue expectations.
• Alaska Air Group (ALK): Shares surged 5% after raising Q3 EPS guidance to $2.15-$2.25 from $1.40-$1.60, driven by strong summer demand, signaling a robust recovery in the airline industry.
• Nvidia (NVDA): CEO Jensen Huang said, “We have a lot of people on our shoulders, and everybody is counting on us,” highlighting the challenge of meeting surging AI infrastructure demand. Huang also emphasized that AI will expand beyond data centers and transform software development.

Economic Reports

After the CPI report yesterday showed a slight uptick in inflation, the PPI (Producer Price Index) also came in with a small uptick in inflationary readings this morning.

• PPI Month-over-Month – 0.2% versus 0.1% expectations
• Core PPI Month-over-Month – 0.3% versus 0.2% expectations
• Unemployment Claims – 230k versus 227k expectations

The slight uptick is worth noting in future inflationary data but between the PPI and inline unemployment claims, rate cut odds barely budged this morning indicating the market did not view these as noteworthy.

Next 24 Hours

The University of Michigan releases their preliminary Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Inflationary Expectations surveys tomorrow morning before-the-bell. Adobe (ADBE) also releases their earnings results after-the-bell today.

Have a fantastic Thursday!

Gold Futures (/GC)

The gold breakout has been followed by traders for many weeks now. This has been about as clean of a resistance level as you will find on a major area of the market. If the breakout can hold, moving averages start to slope upward on intraday and daily charts and momentum can take hold. There also can be numerous secondary patterns established during the process allowing not just a trade, but a series of trades. It is a good look for gold and as always, we maintain our if it is a day that ends in Y, it is a good day to start a gold position philosophy.