9 Minute Read

Tackle Today: 13,762 hours

December 19, 2019

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« To say: It depends. »

Please, clarify something for me:

How many hours does it take to graduate as an economist?
How many hours does it take to become a professional investor?
What about the number of hours to become a professional investor?
How many hours to become a specialist in the financial markets?

Many, yes. Many hours. More than 10,000 for sure.

And even after all this huge pile of hours, the only universal answer for all the questioning we face every day from friends, family, and colleagues is:

It depends.

Interest rates: up or down?
It depends.

Dollar: up or down?
It depends.

Apple: up or down?
It depends.

Recession or economic booming?
It depends.

When we answer “it depends” we are not kidding, we are not making fun of people. It REALLY depends.

Is there a simple way to teach these people how to analyze the financial markets? Yes, there is. Just go watch a drunken person walking down the streets. Don’t hate me, but pedestrians under the influence of alcohol can teach us much more about the movement of markets and macroeconomy than the 13,762 hours we spend learning our craft like nerds. It is simple: Erratic in the short term but definitely on a trend.

There is so much involved in the markets and in the economy that trying to predict what’s coming next and where things are heading to, is like trying to predict the next step of a person intoxicated by alcohol walking in public spaces. Just follow his/her trend and be prepared: the drunken may not get to the destination and fall flat on his/her own face in the meantime.


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