Coach Mark here.

Bulls need one of three (ideally all three) charts to break before they can go on the offense. The Big Three. Yields, Dollar, Oil. We have talked about this a lot in recent weeks. The whole market has been talking about it a lot in recent weeks. The volatility in the market started when these charts to ascend sharply and it is likely the volatility in the market stops when they start to descend. The equation is simple at this point.

This has market observers on the lookout for macro events or technical patterns that can break these strong uptrends. A topping pattern does not have enough time to develop in the dollar or yields this week but we will be on the lookout for it in the month of October. That leaves macro events this week.

Jay Powell speaks today. It is unlikely that he says anything new and sticks to his “we will have to see” attitude lately. That leaves unemployment data this week and we have a slew of it coming into the market cumulating with the monthly unemployment report on Friday. If this data comes in soft in creates a “Bad News is Good News” scenario in the market that creates a break in trend in the dollar and yields. If the market forms a support level during the week this could be a nice developing situation for the bulls.

A lot of ifs and maybes for sure but you can see the scenario playing out. If unemployment data comes in strong…well yields and the dollar are unlikely to break.

We will break it all down on Macro Monday today on the Halftime Report. Have a fantastic start to your week!

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Chart of the Day: 10-Year Treasury Index (TNX)

This chart needs to break. It is starting to impact things outside of markets right now…you know real world things. Until it breaks multi asset classes are going to remain under pressure.

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