Coach Mark here.

Ok this is going to be a week. The developments in the Middle East this weekend only add to what was already busy week. Here are the highlights for the coming week.

Earnings – We have 40% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings this week including a Who’s Who of Mag 7 names (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta). My brother Matt on the podcast yesterday highlighted how earnings continues to disappoint and you can listen to the whole Trading Justice conversation here. Valuations are elevated right now and the market seems very complacent heading into this week. I am going to tune in to the Halftime Report each day to get a snap shot of what my brother is finding but most interested in what the earnings theme is after this week. We will have a VERY clear picture after this week and Matt will break it all down in the next podcast.

Treasury and The Fed – We have treasury announcements on Monday and Wednesday and arguably the big event on Wednesday with the Powell press conference after the Fed announcement. If the Treasury does not issue obscene amount of new debt (obscene is a relative term, it is going to be big) and keeps that debt issued short-dated then that is very positive for risk assets. Equally, if not more important, what will be the tone of Powell on Wednesday? Does he do anything to pour cold water on the equity rally? Fed speak has been all over the place over the last month and all eyes will be on Powell on Wednesday.

Payroll Numbers – JOLTS on Tuesday, ADP data on Wednesday, Unemployment Claims on Thursday and what in other weeks would be the big event of the week with the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.  The economy has been resilient as has employment and it would be shocking to get data that indicates otherwise in the short-term. Still, we tune in to see if those shocks occur but I personally expect these numbers to be drowned out by the other noise in the market this week.

Geopolitical Events – We tragically lost three U.S. Army soldiers this weekend in a drone attack in Jordan. Our thoughts are with the families of these heroes. Additional escalation after this incident has market ramifications if it were to occur in commodities and potentially other assets.

We have somber hearts as we start the week after this incident and will do our best to objectively break down the market action on the Halftime Report today.

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Chart of the Day: S&P 500 Weekly Chart(SPY)

Markets are extremely complacent heading into this week. A complicated macro backdrop coupled with a smooth uptrend could create some interesting dynamics in the coming weeks.

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Today’s lineup

Traders Lounge 11 AM EST

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Weekend Reports

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