≈ No wonder they don’t have friends.≈
Traders,
A bear is a trader who bets on lower prices. Given all the terrible things that happen globally, you might think they have a decent chance of making money wagering on declining markets. When I first started, I thought their probability of success was at least decent.
Boy, was I misinformed.
It’s not even in the same zip code as “decent.”
The odds are monumentally stacked against them. And, it gets even harder the longer they decide to cling to their pessimistic positions. Today’s chart of the day helps illustrate this by revealing the percentage of rolling periods with positive returns for the S&P 500 since 1926. It encompasses nearly 100 years of data and includes reinvested dividends.
If you flip it on its head, it shows the pitiful plight of naysayers who want to speculate on a crash.
Want to bet on stocks being lower a year from now? Your odds are a measly 24.5%.
How about banking on stocks being lower three years from now? You only have a 15.9% chance of success.
Lengthen your bearish wager out to five years, and you’re looking at an 11.8% probability of profit.
Bet against America for the next decade, and your odds fall to a grim 5.6%.
No wonder bears are so surly. They fight an uphill battle every time they step onto the field.
#TeamTackle
Chart of the Day
The Bullish History of the S&P 500
Per the definition outlined above, the S&P 500 has a powerful tailwind. Betting against it for an extended period is a fool’s errand. When it comes to the stock market, time does indeed heal all wounds. Keep this in mind next time equities hit a speed bump.
Video of the Day
Coach Frank’s Charts
Today’s line up
Traders Lounge 11 AM EST
Join the coaches in this live lounge, ask questions, discuss ideas or just sit back and listen to veteran traders discuss market conditions.
The Coaches Show 8:30 PM EST
This is our weekly MasterMind group. Join the coaches tonight, 8:30pm EST to discuss the markets and help you prepare for the week.
Halftime Report 12:30 PM EST
The Halftime Report starts at 12:30 EST and covers what news is driving the market, chart analysis from the movers and shakers of the day and fun in a way that only Matt and Tim can deliver.
Financial freedom is a journey
The Tackle Today series is brought to you by Tackle Trading.
Sign up now and gain unfettered access to all of the quality content and powerful Scouting Reports that our Pro Members enjoy for 15-days absolutely free with no strings attached and let us show you what your trading has been missing.
# Sign up now for a 15-DAY FREE TRIAL #
Legal Disclaimer
Tackle Trading LLC (“Tackle Trading”) is providing this website and any related materials, including newsletters, blog posts, videos, social media postings and any other communications (collectively, the “Materials”) on an “as-is” basis. This means that although Tackle Trading strives to make the information accurate, thorough and current, neither Tackle Trading nor the author(s) of the Materials or the moderators guarantee or warrant the Materials or accept liability for any damage, loss or expense arising from the use of the Materials, whether based in tort, contract, or otherwise. Tackle Trading is providing the Materials for educational purposes only. We are not providing legal, accounting, or financial advisory services, and this is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any stocks, options, or other financial instruments or investments. Examples that address specific assets, stocks, options or other financial instrument transactions are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to represent specific trades or transactions that we have conducted. In fact, for the purpose of illustration, we may use examples that are different from or contrary to transactions we have conducted or positions we hold. Furthermore, this website and any information or training herein are not intended as a solicitation for any future relationship, business or otherwise, between the users and the moderators. No express or implied warranties are being made with respect to these services and products. By using the Materials, each user agrees to indemnify and hold Tackle Trading harmless from all losses, expenses and costs, including reasonable attorneys’ fees, arising out of or resulting from user’s use of the Materials. In no event shall Tackle Trading or the author(s) or moderators be liable for any direct, special, consequential or incidental damages arising out of or related to the Materials. If this limitation on damages is not enforceable in some states, the total amount of Tackle Trading’s liability to the user or others shall not exceed the amount paid by the user for such Materials.
All investing and trading in the securities market involves a high degree of risk. Any decisions to place trades in the financial markets, including trading in stocks, options or other financial instruments, is a personal decision that should only be made after conducting thorough independent research, including a personal risk and financial assessment, and prior consultation with the user’s investment, legal, tax and accounting advisers, to determine whether such trading or investment is appropriate for that user.
