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Tackle Today: Best Six Months of the Presidential Cycle

October 25, 2022

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«Cue the Bulls.»


Seasonality is a cottage industry in the field of Technical Analysis. And it’s not just viewing asset prices through the lens of the calendar. There are other ways you can slice and dice the data. The Presidential Cycle is one of the more interesting. As the name suggests, it looks at stock market performance each year of a President’s 4-year term.

We’re currently in a Midterm year, and election season will soon be upon us. History has some bullish things to say about our current positioning in the cycle. According to the chart below, November – April of the Midterm year sees the stock market register its best six-month performance of the entire cycle, with an average gain of 15.2%.

Annualized, that’s a whopping 30.4%! Keep this seasonal tailwind in mind as one force supporting buyers over the coming months.

Video Of The Day: Gino’s Gems – Fast way to find trading picks

In today’s Gino’s Gems, Coach Gino Poore teaches a fast way to find trading picks.

Chart of the Day: Best Six Months of Four-Year Presidential Cycle

Chart of the Day: Best Six Months of Four-Year Presidential Cycle (Source: @ryandetrick)
Source: @ryandetrick

Since 1950, stocks have finished higher 18 out of 18 times during the Nov- April time frame in a midterm year. Will this go around make it 19 out of 19?

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