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Tackle Today: When certainty becomes a ghost

September 12, 2018

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≈ I don’t believe in ghosts, but I know they do exist. ≈

The financial markets are composed of, basically, two kinds of individuals: the ones that don’t know and the ones that think they know.

Traders in the second group are doomed to fail. Because they think they know, they usually don’t leave room for errors, which inevitably occur. They are more worried about being right most of the time than actually making money. Situations have to adapt to their planning, not the other way around. They want to suppress volatility and kill uncertainty. “If” is a forbidden word.

The ones in the first group acknowledge their ignorance and poor forecasting abilities. From start to finish, their process is filled with “Ifs”. They know they can end up being in the 30% slice of the probability in a 70% POP trade. They know chart reading is not failproof, a breakout can fail and a single Tweet can ruin their positions. So, they adapt their planning to situations, not the other way around.

By knowing they can be wrong, their errors become a source of information of what does not work, increasing their chances of success over the long run. Certainty becomes a ghost they don’t believe in.


Chart of the Day

The Department of Planning

There are only two things certain in life: Death & Taxes.


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Finish the courses you’ve started

Coach Tim talks about the importance of taking advantage of the courses at Tackle Trading.


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