The S&P 500 remains in a short-term uptrend but is showing signs of momentum fatigue. After a failed breakout attempt earlier in the week, SPY has pulled back below its 9 EMA and is now testing the bull zone between the 9 and 20-day moving averages. Geopolitical escalation between Israel and Iran has added to market hesitation, with traders shifting into defense as volatility increases.

The S&P 500 is receiving a technical upgrade this week following a slight breakout from its recent consolidation range. Last week, we framed the market as a K-trade, a defined consolidation between 595 resistance and 576 support, with a bullish edge due to the rising short-term trend. This week, that edge played out: SPY broke above 595 and is now testing the next key resistance zone near 600. Importantly, this breakout is not extended, with room to run toward the all-time highs at 610–613.

The S&P 500 holds its +40 technical ranking this week as the market continues to consolidate at the top end of its trend. The broader bullish structure remains intact, with key support levels holding, but short-term momentum has flattened as traders navigate a range-bound environment. The result is a developing K-trade scenario, where the market is coiling between well-defined support and resistance and awaiting resolution. Given this structure, we are maintaining the +40 ranking heading into next week.

The S&P 500 holds its +40 technical ranking this week, unchanged from last week. While the broader trend remains bullish, the market has shifted from slight overextension to a retracement. This is not a breakdown, it’s a textbook progression in a trending environment. The bulls no longer have short-term momentum, but they still have the trend, and as long as 575 holds, control remains in their hands.

We’re upgrading the S&P 500’s technical ranking by +5 to +40 this week, reflecting growing strength in both the short- and intermediate-term trends. The daily trend turned bullish two weeks ago on the bear stop-out recovery. This week, the weekly chart confirmed that shift with a breakout above resistance, supported by improving indicators like the RSI and a MACD hook that’s pushing toward a bullish crossover. It’s the first time in months that both time-frames have aligned in favor of the bulls.

We’re upgrading the market +5 points to +45 this week as the S&P 500 did what it needed to—consolidate after a stretch of overextension, without losing trend structure or momentum. The week was filled with headlines—from Powell’s press conference to trade deal updates—but price didn’t chase. That’s the shift. We’re moving from headline-driven momentum to a market that’s already priced in optimism and is now deciding whether it can carry it.