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Tackle Today: The S&P 500 is up Nearly 20% for 2021.

August 26, 2021

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What now?


We’re fast approaching the end of August, and the first two-thirds of 2021 is in the books. The S&P 500 is now up 20% on the year, and we still have four more months remaining. Skeptics might argue prices have risen too far too fast. “What goes up must come down,” they say. But is there truth to that? Or should the trend keep trending?

Here’s what Ryan Detrick, a fellow CMT at LPL Financial, says about the matter. “What happens the rest of the year if it [S&P 500] is up 20% by the end of August? Well, the past two times the final 4 months gained another 9.6% (1995) and 7.9% (1997). So just because it is up a lot, doesn’t mean it can’t keep trending higher.”

Indeed. If there’s one thing this raging bull market has taught us, it’s that you bet against it at your peril. History suggests the helium in this rapidly rising balloon is far from running out.


Chart of the Day

What Happens to Stocks Now?

Today’s chart shows all prior years when the S&P 500 was up at least 15% on the year at the end of August. The blue bars reveal how much it was up through August. The orange bars show the final four months of the year. The takeaway is clear. Bulls usually press their advantage into year-end. History says you don’t bet against them.

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