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Tackle Today: A Few Warning Signals Out There

April 2, 2024

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Oil and Yields Rising

Coach Mark here.

A few charts out there acting a little bit frisky on a Tuesday morning. Now we have had charts acting frisky all year long in what was a relentless bull market in the first quarter but this time the charts acting frisky are a little different.

Oil has started the month strong. After a strong first quarter in which oil battled through a series of resistance levels oil is starting the month of April strong. Increased tension in the middle east, OPEC maintaining supply cuts, coupled with a dovish Fed and economic growth that has been strong foundation for a rally. Rising oil is going to do nothing to alleviate mounting concerns on inflation after a series of data points that has brought inflation back into the front of the narrative discussion.

Yields are also breaking out of resistance. The world is better for bulls (in multiple asset classes) when we are not discussing yields. Yields add complexity to the market. Late last summer and early fall when yields and the dollar were rising it created a nasty mix for risk assets of all kinds and a breakout here in yields is going to catch some attention.

Oil and yields rising certainly classify as a few troubling charts to monitor as we start the month of April as they both tie into the inflation narrative. Of course, positive inflationary data can quickly alleviate these concerns.

We will break it all down on the Halftime Report today! Have a great Tuesday and let us know if you need anything at all.


Chart of the Day: Crude Oil (/CL)

Oil had a sneaky-quiet great first quarter and is not so sneak to start the month of April. Power move to start the month as tensions escalate in the Middle East and the macro story very fundamentally strong.



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