Each month, the Tackle Trading team will update our members with the economic data that drives the financial markets. This is a process we call Recession Watch.

In the figure posted below, you’ll see that in July, the USD move up close to 3% against the other major currencies despite the economic data in July. Manufacturing and housing data showing slight positive increases while retail sales continues to lag with consumer confidence & spending showing the weakest data. GDP looks to rebound in the second quarter from a negative 0.2 in the first quarter to a range of 2.2-2.8% for the second quarter. The SPX in the same time frame maintained its neutral action with a slight increase of close to 1% for the entire month.

July

1. Unemployment: 5.3% = Positive

2: ISM Manufacturing: 53.5 = Positive

3. ISM Non-Manufacturing: 56.0 = Positive

4. Trade Balance: -41.9B = Negative

5. Retail Sales: -0.3% = Negative

6. PPI: 0.4% = Negative

7. Building Permits: 1.34 M = Positive

8. Philly FED Manufacturing: 5.7 = Negative

9. CPI: 0.3% = Negative

10. UofM Consumer Sentiment: 93.3 = Negative

11. Core Durable Goods: 0.8% = Positive

12. CB Consumer Confidence: 90.9 = Negative

13. FOMC Policy: <.25 = No change

14. Advanced GDP: 2.3% = Positive

June

1. Unemployement: 5.5% = negative

2. ISM Manufacturing: 52.8 = No Change

3. ISM Non-Manufacturing: 55.7 = negative

4. Trade Balance: -40.9b = Positive

5. Retail Sales: 1.2% = Positive

6: PPI: 0.5% = Positive

7: UofM Consumer Sentiment: 94.6 = Positive

8: Building Permits: 1.28M = Positive

9: CPI: 0.4% = Positive

10. Philly FED Manufacturing: 15.2 = Positive

11. Existing Home Sales: 5.35M = Positive

12: Core Durable Goods: 0.5% = Postive

13. Final GDP (1st Quarter 2015): -0.2% = Negative

14. CB Consumer Confidence: 101.4 = Positive

May

1. Unemployment: 5.4% = no change
2. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI = 57.8 = better than expected
3. Retail Sales: 0.0% = Big miss
4. PPI: -0.4% = Big miss
5. Building Permits 1.14M = Slight increase
6. CPI: 0.3% = slight increase
7. UofM Consumer Sentiment: 88.6 = Big Miss
8. Durable Goods: 0.5% = Expected
9. Consumer Confidence 95.4 = Slight Increase
10. Prelim GDP: = -0.7 = Slight increase
11.  ISM Manufacturing PMI: 52.8% = slight increase

April

1. Unemployment: 5.5% with 126k new job created. = BIG MISS!!!!!
2. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI = 56.5 Miss
3. Retail Sales 0.4% = Miss
4. PPI 0.2% = Miss
5. Building Permits 1.04m = Miss
6. CPI 0.2% = Expected
7. UofM Consumer Sentiment 95.9 = Gain
8. Durable Goods -0.2% = Miss
9. Consumer Confidence 95.2 = Big Miss
10. Advanced 1st Quarter GDP 0.2% = Big Miss (will be revised lower)
11.  ISM Manufacturing PMI 51.5 = Miss

March

1. ISM Manufacturing 52.9 = Miss
2. Retail Sales -0.6 = Miss
3. PPI -0.5 = Miss
4. Consumer Sentiment = 91.2 Miss
5. Housing Starts = 0.90 Million Miss
6. Existing Home Sales = 4.88 Million Miss
7. Durable Goods -1.4% = Miss
8. Final 4th Quarter 2014 GDP: 2.2% Miss
9. ISM Manufacturing: 51.5 = Miss

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